CRYPTANALYSIS - HOUSE VIEW ON KEY ALTCOINS

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Disclaimer: Cryptomover is not a licensed financial advisor. The information presented in this piece is an opinion, and is not purported to be fact. Cryptocurrency is a volatile virtual commodity and can move quickly in any direction. Cryptomover is not responsible for any loss incurred by following this advice.

 

1.BITCOIN (Published: 13th Jun, 2017)

BASIC INFORMATION
Bitcoin was first introduced in 2008 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto and the idea was to create “a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash which would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”
Bitcoin is the first application of the blockchain technology. In its software there is a file, called “The Bitcoin Blockchain”, storing in thousands of computers across the world which contains all the bitcoin transactions that have ever happened. The computers having this file can connect with each other with the same software to validate and keep track of bitcoin payments. Whenever a payment is made, a payment instruction will be sent to the network and after some time has passed, it will be included in one of the block updates, and is added to “The Bitcoin Blockchain” file on all the computers across the network.
The Bitcoin ledger is a new kind of payment system. Unlike fiat currencies, it has a fixed supply of 21 million coins and cannot be printed on-demand nor controlled by an institution. With this decentralised feature, no trust is needed, allowing transactions from anyone to anyone at any time. On the other hand, with the ledger written into thousands of computers, it will be nearly impossible to hack or manipulate the records, making Bitcoin a safe digital currency. In short, Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency which is decentralised yet secure. It has created a new page in the currency history and provides a unique alternative to online payments.

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Being the most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has experienced an increasing amount of transaction volume since its release. With the size of each block limited to one megabyte, delays are beginning to happen, increasing the transaction time. As a result, scaling the network is required but there is no consensus among the community about how to do it.
There are two camps in the debate with two distinct and mutually exclusive solutions. The first one is  “Bitcoin Unlimited” which proposes to change the block size to unlimited, while the second proposal is “Segregated Witness” which tries to reduce the size of each transaction by reorganising its details. Each method has their pros and cons and the issue remains controversial. 

TRADE SUGGESTIONS
Bitcoins’ innovative features have the potentials to revolutionise the traditional payment system so it is expected to become more and more popular and widely adopted and hence its value should keep rising. This can be reflected by its price: it was trading at around $100 in 2013, $500 in 2016, and $2500 right now. Also, as the first mover, its network effect can also support the price to edge up.
However, the aforementioned controversy is critical to the future of Bitcoin, and the debate would need a much longer time to reach a consensus. Before a solution is implemented, the long transaction time will hurt the user's’ experience and Bitcoin’s reputation and popularity. Together with other risks, I think the bullish market will still have some momentum but it will slow down eventually. Therefore, we suggest selling Bitcoin.

INVESTMENT RISKS
While having the highest market capitalisation so that Bitcoin will not evaporate overnight easily, it is still a volatile asset. In addition, currently it is not regulated in most countries, so any regulations or negative news from the government can have a huge impact to the price. Besides, as everything are network-based, a large-scale hack on exchanges can cause serious loss. In general, a tight money management and risk calculations should be taken into consideration.

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